Obama Takes A Commanding Lead in the National Polls

[Ellen2]

News from the Votemaster

<!-- This table has two columns: (1) the blog (2) the ads --><TABLE width="100%" summary=Blog border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Obama Takes A Commanding Lead in the National Polls

Open Left has a graph (http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=7E6EAC4B95FB68FA5D9060086F D015D8?diaryId=8833) (reproduced below) of Obama and McCain's standing in the national polls over the past 10 days. While Presidents aren't elected by popular vote, this large a difference is going to show up in the state polls in the swing states, as it is starting to do. It is hard to imagine anyone losing the popular vote by 8 points and winning the electoral vote.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Images/national-polls-Oct04.jpg New Rasmussen Weighting

For the coming week, Rasmussen will weight national polls with 39.3% Democrats, 33.3% Republicans, and 27.4% independents. These numbers come from 21,000 interviews done during the past 6 weeks. The partisan breakdown is important because self-identifying Democrats and Republicans vote overwhelmingly for their party. In fact, they can't believe anything bad about their party. Rasmussen took a poll asking who won the Vice-Presidential debate and Obama supporters gave the nod to Biden by 81% to 3%. McCain supporters thought Palin won, 76% to 5%. Were they watching the same debate? The CBS poll of undecided voters said Biden won 46% to 21%. The CNN poll gave it to Biden 51% to 36%. The country is so polarized that it is apparently impossible for a McCain supporter to say: "Biden is a much more experienced debater than Palin so he naturally won the debate. By the same token, McCain is a much more experienced candidate than Obama, so I am voting for him." The model is: my party, right or wrong (Version 1.0 was "my country, right or wrong").
Mud Preview

The McCain campaign has said that this week they will begin running ads connecting Obama to convicted money launderer Tony Rezko and 1960s radical William Ayers. Obama, however, is not taking this lying down like John Kerry did in 2004. Starting Monday Obama is running a scathing ad (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14283.html) saying: "Three quarters of a million jobs lost this year. Our financial system in turmoil. And John McCain? Erratic in a crisis. Out of touch on the economy. No wonder his campaign wants to change the subject." Both sides will go on the attack (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CAMPAIGN_NEXT_CHAPTER?SITE=CONGRA&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT) much more before it is over. You can count on it.
Obama Breaking Away in Pennsylvania

Muhlenberg College is now running a 5-day tracking poll (done for the Allentown Morning Call) in Pennsylvania. Every day they poll until they get 100-120 likely voters and then average that day's data with the four previous days' data. Below are the results for the 9 days since they started doing this. It is clear that the race was close when the tracking poll started, but Obama now has a commanding lead. Together with the national poll graph above and McCain's decision to pull out of Michigan altogether, it would seem that as the economy becomes the dominant issue, white working-class voters are starting to come back to their Democratic roots. Getting incensed about gay marriage is a luxury they can afford when times are good, but when their jobs, savings, and retirements are on the line, the Democrats are favored.
<!--ENDFEED--><TABLE cellSpacing=0 summary="" border=1><TBODY><TR><TD class=small-state-header>End </TD><TD class=small-state-header>Obama </TD><TD class=small-state-header>McCain </TD><TD class=small-state-header>Other </TD><TD class=small-state-header>Undecided </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct. 3 </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>51 </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>39 </TD><TD class=small-beige-right-adjusted></TD><TD class=small-beige-right-adjusted></TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct. 2 </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>50 </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>40 </TD><TD class=small-beige-right-adjusted>2% </TD><TD class=small-beige-right-adjusted>8% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct. 1 </TD><TD class=small-blue-right-adjusted>50 </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>41 </TD><TD class=small-beige-right-adjusted>2% </TD><TD class=small-beige-right-adjusted>7% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Sept. 30 </TD><TD class=small-blue-right-adjusted>48 </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>41 </TD><TD class=small-beige-right-adjusted>3% </TD><TD class=small-beige-right-adjusted>8% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Sept. 29 </TD><TD class=small-blue-right-adjusted>49 </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>41 </TD><TD class=small-beige-right-adjusted>3% </TD><TD class=small-beige-right-adjusted>7% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Sept. 28 </TD><TD class=small-blue-right-adjusted>49 </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>42 </TD><TD class=small-beige-right-adjusted>2% </TD><TD class=small-beige-right-adjusted>7% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Sept. 27 </TD><TD class=small-blue-right-adjusted>48 </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>42 </TD><TD class=small-beige-right-adjusted>2% </TD><TD class=small-beige-right-adjusted>8% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Sept. 26 </TD><TD class=small-blue-right-adjusted>47 </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>42 </TD><TD class=small-beige-right-adjusted>2% </TD><TD class=small-beige-right-adjusted>9% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Sept. 25 </TD><TD class=small-blue-right-adjusted>47 </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>43 </TD><TD class=small-beige-right-adjusted>2% </TD><TD class=small-beige-right-adjusted>8% </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
With Michigan abandoned and Pennsylvania appearing increasingly out of his reach, McCain's state-by-state strategy has to focus on just holding all the states Bush won in 2004. However, Iowa is probably a lost cause and New Mexico almost as bad. With the Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico, Obama reaches 264 electoral votes, not quite enough. If McCain can hold the others, he wins. However, Obama is making inroads in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada. He only needs one of them to win (if it is Nevada, the election will be decided in the House, where the Democrats will control a majority of the state delegations). McCain has no choice but to defend them all. Obama can choose which ones to go after the hardest. The Washington Post has a good analysis (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/04/AR2008100402135.html?hpid=topnews) of Obama's choices.


www.electoral-vote.com

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[Ellen2]

News from the Votemaster

<!-- This table has two columns: (1) the blog (2) the ads --><TABLE width="100%" summary=Blog border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Dow-Jones Average Is Down 1500 Points This Month

The Dow Jones average dropped another 189 points yesterday. It is off over 1500 points during October alone. Here is a chart of the Dow for the past 12 months.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Images/Dow-Oct09.jpg
The goverment is now toying with the idea of giving the banks even more money in return for (preferred) stock. In most counries this would be called nationalizing the banks. Who would have thought that the Bush/Cheney administration would go down in history as bigger socialists than FDR? The plan would be voluntary (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/business/economy/09econ.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin), but it still undercuts a basic tenet the Republican Party has held sacred for a century: the government should leave the private sector to manage itself. It will be interesting to see how the candidates respond to this new wrinkle.
The Fed gave A.I.G. another $38 billion yesterday, on top of the $85 billion they already gave it. People are hopping mad (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/07/AR2008100703150.html?nav=hcmodule) (and the $440,000 party the A.I.G. executives threw for themselves didn't help much). John McCain's strategy of talking about William Ayers 24/7 has apparently backfired (http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/mccain_advisers_taking_ayers_w.php) and he is pulling the ads. While the base was eating it up, they were already in the bag. Independents didn't like it one bit. They want to hear how McCain is going to fix the economy, not who Obama knew 20 years ago. McCain doesn't want to talk about the economy, of course, since what he really and truly has believed his whole life is the free markets work best and the government should stay out of them. But as people watch their 401(k) plans and their pensions and their future go up in smoke, this is a real tough sell. He'd better think of something different to say in the next 50 nanoseconds or he is going to be--in the immortal words of George H.W. Bush--in deep doodoo.
Is the White House Worth Having?

Given all the problems the new President will face--two wars, the economy in the toilet, and 80% of the population thinking the country is going in the wrong direction--it is surprising anybody wants to be President. The new President will face an unprecendent number of challenges all at once. Some people have compared this election to 1980, when a fresh new face, Ronald Reagan, took over a country suffering from serious malaise and raised people's spirits. But more and more, people are starting to compare this election to 1932, when there were really industrial-strength problems. CQ Politics has a nice story (http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=weeklyreport-000002971119) about the mess the new President will have to deal with.
Obama Plans Transition; McCain Doesn't

It may or may not reflect the internal state of the campaigns' thinking, but Obama has a large, well-staffed operation going on to prepare (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/08/obama-mccain-transition-e_n_132976.html) for the presidency. Groups are working to select potential cabinet officers and plan policy agendas. McCain has no such operation. All his manpower is going into a final push to win the election. If McCain wins, Obama will look arrogant for planning his administration before winning the election. If he does win, however, he will look mature, wise, and knowledgeable about the process of actually governing.
Democrats Expected to Sweep Close Races in Congress

But the economic storm has sent the doodoo flying not only in the direction of McCain, but also in the direction of NRSC chairman Sen. John Ensign (R-NV). The chairman of the DSCC, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), is now openly talking (http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002972992) about getting close to 60 seats in the Senate, which would allow the Democrats to invoke cloture and pass legislation with the Republicans powerless to block it. While Schumer is quite good at counting (not to mention raising money), this is the first time he has dared talk so freely about getting 60 seats. In 2006, Schumer managed to pick up six seats (and control of the Senate) when nobody in his right mind thought that was possible. Among Republican insiders, holding their loss to five seats (New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Alaska) would be considered a huge victory. Now they are worried about losing Oregon, Minnesota, North Carolina, Mississippi-B, Georgia, and Kentucky as well. They see the handwriting on the wall and it appears to say: "Armageddon." CNN also has a story (http://us.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/08/senate.election/index.html) on the Senate.
Analyst Stu Rothenberg, who is not generally given to great enthusiasm for the Democrats, is now also talking (http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/) about the possibility of close to 60 Senate seats for the Democrats. Furthermore, he is now predicting the Democrats will pick up at least 20-30 seats in the House, maybe even eclipsing their 31-seat pickup in 2006. He concludes with: "Republicans appear to be heading into a disastrous election that will usher in a very bleak period for the party." Our tally (on top of the page) is now a 247 to 187 breakdown (with 1 tie), but the reality is much worse for the Republicans because many close races that are probably going to go Democratic have not been polled. Our algorithm assumes that in the absence of any polling data, the incumbent party wins. While normally that is true 90% of the time, this year it may not be, especially due to the open seat issue. There are 47 seats in which the 2006 winner is not running. Ten of these were occupied by Democrats and nearly all of them are in overwhelmingly Democratic districts. The other 37 are occupied by Republicans and many of these are in swing districts. Here is the full list (http://www.cs.vu.nl/~ast/evp2008/House/house_retirements.html).
Obama Is Outspending McCain on TV ads

The Wisconsin advertising project (http://wiscadproject.wisc.edu/) keeps track of the candidates TV expenditures to provide a historical record. Politico has a summary (http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Spending_by_state.html) of what the campaigns have spent in the past week. Obama is outspending McCain by huge margins almost everywhere, for example, 8x in North Carolina, 4x in Virginia, and 3x in Florida. McCain is outspending Obama in only two states, Minnesota and Iowa, neither of which he has a prayer of winning any more. The September fundraising numbers haven't come in yet, but clearly Obama must have raised a lot to be spending at this pace. While McCain can't raise any money (because he accepted public financing), the RNC raised (http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/RNC_shatters_monthly_fundraising_record.html) a record-breaking $66 million in September.
Prosecutors Conclude Presenting Evidence in the Stevens Trial

Prosecutors in the trial of indicted senator Ted Stevens presented (http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docid=news-000002972806) dozens of e-mails yesterday showing that Stevens was intimately involved in the renovations to his house paid for by an oil services company, VECO, to prevent Stevens from claiming that the renovations were made pretty much behind his back and without his knowledge of what they were doing. Stevens has been charged with filing false reports to the Senate to conceal these gifts. Stevens' defense begins today.
<!--ENDFEED-->National Poll Roundup

The national polls still favor Obama. Here they are.
- ARG (Obama +4)
- Battleground (Obama +4)
- Diageo (Obama +1)
- Gallup (Obama +11)
- Ipsos (Obama +7)
- Rasmussen (Obama +6)
- Research 2000 (Obama +10)
- Zogby (Obama +2)
The average is an Obama lead of 5.6%.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


www.electoral-vote.com (http://www.electoral-vote.com)

[Ellen2]

News from the Votemaster

<!-- This table has two columns: (1) the blog (2) the ads --><TABLE width="100%" summary=Blog border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>McCain Concedes Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico

CNN is reporting (http://thepage.time.com/john-king-on-cnn/) that McCain is making those tough decisions that politicians love to talk about. According to CNN, McCain is abandoning Colorado (9 EVs), Iowa (7 EVs) and New Mexico (5 Evs). If Obama wins these three he gets 21 EVs. Add these to the 252 EVs Kerry won and he has 273 and becomes President. McCain's strategy at this point is to win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, and--get this--Pennsylvania. The first six are arguably swing states, but our three-poll average puts Obama 12 points ahead in Pennsylvania. McCain is effectively betting the farm on a state which looks like an Obama landslide. It is a strange choice. Colorado looks a lot easier than Pennsylvania. James Carville once famously said that Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama sandwiched in between. Maybe McCain is going to go all out to win the white working class men in the Alabama section of Pennsylvania. McCain can't possibly do it on the economy. What's left? Maybe run against the Wright/Ayers ticket? Any way you look at it, this has to be a desperation move.
Bernanke Endorses Democratic Stimulus Plan

After Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama Sunday, it looked like things couldn't get any worse for John McCain on the endorsement score. Well, they just did. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has endorsed (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122455027730552509.html) the economic stimulus plan supported by Obama and the Democrats. Having the Fed chairman say that Obama and the Democrats have the right ideas on the economy will surely be helpful to Obama even if he wasn't named explicitly. President Bush and the Republicans generally oppose the Democratic plan.
Armies of Lawyers Are Ready to Roll

With Florida 2000 never far from the surface, both sides are ready for one or more sequels. Obama, in particular, has assembled (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=a.hk4HvCkpiE) what is de facto the nation's largest law firm, with 5000 lawyers ready to sue at the drop of a ballot. The challenges have already started, with multiple voter-registration cases in the courts right now. It makes one pine for the old days when elections were decided by the voters rather than by judges, as in 2000 and very possibly in 2008.
Obama Cancels Rallies to Visit Sick Grandmother

Barack Obama has canceled all his rallies and is flying to Hawaii (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27287222/) to visit his seriously ill grandmother, rumored to be close to death. From a political standpoint, missing a few rallies doesn't mean much when you have just raised $150 million. The TV ads will continue to run everywhere. Furthermore, even without saying a word, the message that Obama's family is more important to him than his campaign comes through loud and clear to many "family values" voters and the pundits will surely amplify it. Finally, while everyone talks about him as the "black candidate" he is actually half black. The grandmother he is visiting is completely white as was his mother. This will probably come as a surprise to many voters. Finally, Michelle and other surrogates will continue campaigning. The campaign isn't being suspended. This was a personal decision on Obama's part and shows his priorities.


www.electoral-vote.com
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[Ellen2]

Obama's Lead Keeps Growing

With 33 new polls in today, including eight from key Midwestern states, Barack Obama's lead keeps increasing. It is largely due to people's concerns about the economy, but Colin Powell's endorsement Sunday no doubt helped alleviate fears about his ability to handle national security. Our total now shows Obama at 375 electoral votes, the highest total we have seen for any candidate in either 2004 or 2008. Unless John McCain can pull a rabbit out of the hat next week, it looks bad for him. New polls show Obama with a 10-point lead in Indiana and a 4-point lead in Montana, two very red states. If McCain is going have to fight for deep red states, the swing states are going to be very tough for him. The NY Times has a good analysis (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/us/politics/24mccain.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin) of where we are now.
As a footnote, during the Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton was arguing that Obama's latching onto Howard Dean's 50-state strategy was a bad idea because no Democrat could possibly win states like North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana. She was pleading for a full-bore attempt to win Florida and Ohio and claimed she was the person best suited to that. While we don't know if red states like these will go Democratic in the end, at the moment these three look good for Obama. If he wins them, the whole paradigm of red and blue states the way we have had them for 8 years will bite the dust.
At intrade.com (http://www.intrade.com/) this morning, 10 shares of Obama-to-win were going for $86 and 10 shares of McCain were going for $14. If you think McCain is going to win, an investment of $14,000 in McCain stock now will yield $100,000 in two weeks.
The only piece of good news for McCain is that Obama's fundraising in October has slowed down. He pulled in only $36 million (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/24/obama-raises-36-million-d_n_137423.html) in the first two weeks of October. Given his high burn rate (he spent $105 million in the first two weeks of October), he will also have to make some tough decisions about where to reduce advertising.

Video the Vote

As has been widely reported, chaos is expected in many states on election day due to an unusually large turnout, use of equipment that has never been tested, untrained poll workers, registration issues, insufficient provisional ballots, and more. A new nonpartisan group, Video the Vote (http://videothevote.org/player_vtv_onsite) is encouraging ordinary citizens to get involved and make videos to document and publicize problems. It is absurd that the richest country in the history of the world (even after the Wall St. mess) can't implement a voting system that actually works. The more pressure there is to fix the system, the better.

Obama Continues to Lead Nationally

Here are today's national polls. Obama is ahead by 6.7%.
- Battleground (Obama +4)
- Diageo (Obama +5)
- Gallup expanded (Obama +6)
- IBD (Obama +1)
- NYT/CBS (Obama +13)
- Rasmussen (Obama +7)
- WaPo/ABC (Obama +11)

Today's Polls

Polling is starting to get very intensive as we move down the homestretch. The University of Wisconsin released a batch of polls in eight key Midwestern states yesterday. Barack Obama is leading in all of them by 10 points or more. His worst state is Indiana (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/indiana.html), where he is leading 51% to 41%. If Obama can win red states like Indiana by 10 points, this is going to be the biggest Democratic landslide since Johnson crushed Goldwater in 1964. Virtually none of today's polls have good news for John McCain. He is behind in all the states Kerry won plus Florida (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/florida.html), Indiana (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/indiana.html), and Ohio (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/ohio.html), the latter by 12 points in one poll and 14 in another. There is every indication that the economy is taking McCain down.


<TABLE cellSpacing=0 summary="" border=1><TBODY><TR><TD class=small-state-header>State </TD><TD class=small-state-header>Obama </TD><TD class=small-state-header>McCain </TD><TD class=small-state-header>Start </TD><TD class=small-state-header>End </TD><TD class=small-state-header>Pollster </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Arkansas (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/Arkansas.html) </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>36% </TD><TD class=small-dark-red-right-adjusted>51% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 01 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 21 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>U. of Arkansas </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>California (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/california.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>56% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>33% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 12 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 19 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Public Policy Inst. of Calif. </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Florida (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/florida.html) </TD><TD class=small-blue-right-adjusted>49% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>42% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 20 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Polling Company </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Florida (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/florida.html) </TD><TD class=small-blue-right-adjusted>49% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>44% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 16 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 21 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Quinnipiac U. </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Georgia (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/georgia.html) </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>46% </TD><TD class=small-red-right-adjusted>51% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Rasmussen </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Iowa (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/iowa.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>52% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>39% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 19 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>U. of Wisconsin </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Illinois (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/illinois.html) </TD><TD class=small-blue-right-adjusted>49% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>44% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 20 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>SurveyUSA </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Illinois (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/illinois.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>61% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>32% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 19 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>U. of Wisconsin </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Indiana (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/indiana.html) </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>49% </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>45% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 21 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>SurveyUSA </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Indiana (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/indiana.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>51% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>41% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 19 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>U. of Wisconsin </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Kansas (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/kansas.html) </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>41% </TD><TD class=small-dark-red-right-adjusted>53% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 21 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>SurveyUSA </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Kentucky (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/kentucky.html) </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>39% </TD><TD class=small-dark-red-right-adjusted>55% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 19 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 21 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Research 2000 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Louisiana (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/louisiana.html) </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>41% </TD><TD class=small-dark-red-right-adjusted>57% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 21 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 21 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Rasmussen </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Maine (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/maine.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>56% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>35% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 16 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 19 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Critical Insights </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Michigan (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/michigan.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>51% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>37% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 19 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>EPIC-MRA </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Michigan (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/michigan.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>58% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>36% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 19 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>U. of Wisconsin </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Minnesota (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>50% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>40% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 16 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 20 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Financial Dynamics </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Minnesota (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>56% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>41% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Rasmussen </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Minnesota (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/minnesota.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>57% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>38% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 19 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>U. of Wisconsin </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Montana (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/montana.html) </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>44% </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>40% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 16 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 20 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Montana State U. </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Ohio (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/ohio.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>52% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>38% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 16 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 21 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Quinnipiac U. </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Ohio (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/ohio.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>53% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>41% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 19 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>U. of Wisconsin </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Oregon (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/oregon.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>48% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>34% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 10 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 20 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Riley Research </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Pennsylvania (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/pennsylvania.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>51% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>41% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 16 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 20 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Financial Dynamics </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Pennsylvania (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/pennsylvania.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>52% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>41% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 19 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>U. of Wisconsin </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Pennsylvania (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/pennsylvania.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>52% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>42% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 18 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Muhlenberg Coll. </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Pennsylvania (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/pennsylvania.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>53% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>40% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 16 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 21 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Quinnipiac U. </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Pennsylvania (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/pennsylvania.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>53% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>41% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 21 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>SurveyUSA </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Texas (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/texas.html) </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>44% </TD><TD class=small-dark-red-right-adjusted>54% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 21 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 21 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Rasmussen </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Washington (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/washington.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>54% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>43% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Rasmussen </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Wisconsin (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/wisconsin.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>53% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>40% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 16 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 20 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Financial Dynamics </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Wisconsin (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/wisconsin.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>53% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>40% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 19 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>U. of Wisconsin </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>West Virginia (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/west-virginia.html) </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>44% </TD><TD class=small-red-right-adjusted>49% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 20 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 21 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>West Virginia Wesleyan U. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[Ellen2]

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:1928_Electoral_Map.png

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:1932_Electoral_Map.png

[Ellen2]

Happy Election Day!

If you haven't already voted, this would be a good day to do it. Even if the presidential election is decided early and you live out West, be sure to vote because there are many key Senate races (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Senate/senate_races.html) and House races (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/House/house_races.html) up for grabs. In addition, members of the state legislatures will be elected and there are important ballot propositions in some states, for example, proposition 8 in California, which would ban same-sex marriage. Unlike previous days, this site will be updated multiple times today and I will attempt to do live blogging and update the maps in real time this evening. That failed in 2004 due to the load. We had 1.34 million visitors (http://www.sitemeter.com/?a=stats&s=s10electoralvote&r=35) yesterday (and 19 million in October) but the servers seemed to be up to the job this time. Three cheers for lighttpd.
Final Polling Map

So after 2 years, nearly a billion dollars raised and spent, dozens of debates, and many surprises, what does it look like? If you are a Democrat, it looks good; correspondingly, if you are a Republican, it looks gloomy. John McCain made a last-ditch effort to gain ground in Pennsylvania, but it appears to have failed. Obama will take all the states John Kerry won in 2004, worth 252 electoral votes. He also has led consistently in three Bush states: Iowa (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/iowa.html), New Mexico (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/new-mexico.html), and Colorado (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/colorado.html), worth a total of 21 electoral votes. Together with the Kerry states, this gives Obama 273 EVs and the presidency, even if McCain runs the table on the other swing states. However, Obama is leading in Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia, and essentially tied in Florida, North Carolina, and Missouri. It is likely that Obama will win the election with well over 300 electoral votes, possibly 350 of them.
The Senate map (http://www.cs.vu.nl/~ast/evp2008/Senate/Maps/Nov04-s.html) doesn't look any cheerier for the Republicans. Democrats are very likely to pick up Senate seats in Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, and Virginia, giving them 58 (counting independents Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders who caucus with the Democrats). They have a 50-50 shot at knocking off Norm Coleman in Minnesota, which would give them 59. They have a chance to win seats in Kentucky, Georgia, and Mississippi, but these appear to be longshots. Our best guess is that the Democrats will end up with 58-60 seats in the Senate (counting Lieberman and Sanders).
The House is going to be like the Senate: a Democratic landslide. There are too many races to list in detail here, but a Democratic pickup of 25-35 seats seems probable.
In governorland, the Democrats will probably hold Washington and Montana, maybe North Carolina, and pick up Missouri. Republicans will hold Indiana. The othere weren't really contested.
Even Karl Rove is now predicting (http://rove.com/uploads/0000/0051/McCain-Obama_11_3_08_FINAL.pdf) an Obama victory, 338 to 200 electoral votes. However, he is predicting McCain wins of 1% or less in Indiana, North Carolina, and Missouri, woth 37 EVs, which could conceivable flip to Obama.
Finally McCain Gets a Break

John McCain has had a run of bad luck this year ranging from little public interest in foreign policy to the Wall St. Meltdown just before the election. Finally, he is getting the ultimate gift (http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/election-day-weather-presents-challenges-in-swing-states-2008-11-03.html) a Republican could ask for: rain on election day. The forecast is rain and storm in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina. Rain lowers turnout and low turnout always helps Republicans as the people most discouraged from standing in the rain for hours are low-income voters. Whether this will be enough to swing those states is another matter though. They could be close. But turnout is crucial to determining who wins.
The First Election Results Are in Already

The polls have already closed in Dixville Notch, NH (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch) because all 21 eligible voters have cast their ballots. This village of 75 people traditionally opens the polls at midnight on election day and closes them a few minutes later after the last voter has performed his or her civic duty. Barack Obama got 71% (http://us.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/04/dixville.notch/index.html) of the vote here today. Dixville Notch is not a good bellwether, however; it has voted solidly Republican for decades. The last Democrat to carry the Notch was Hubert Humphrey in 1968. It is probably not a good start for McCain to have early election day news dominated by a story about a solidly Republican rural village voting overwhelmingly for Obama.

(...)
Breakdowns Expected in Multiple Swing States

The National Journal has a good piece (http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/rg_20081103_3928.php) on likely voting problems today. Here are some of the highlights (lowlights?).
Colorado: Public-interest groups have sued the state because 35,000 voters have been illegally purged from the rolls. Also, the voting equipment was decertified and then immediately recertified. To top it off, the secretary of state has been barely doing his job since he is campaigning for Congress (and supervising his own election).
Florida: Many voters will be using the third type of voting machine in as many presidential elections, machines that lost 3500 votes in the August primary in a single county. Also, 12,000 voters have been purged from the roles because their voting data does not match other state data bases, often due to clerical errors.
Ohio: The (Democratic) secretary of state, Jennifer Brunner, has been involved in half a dozen lawsuits over 200,000 voters whose registration data do not match other state data bases (as in Florida). She has won most of them, including one in the Supreme Court, but these battles could lay the groundwork for GOP challenges if McCain loses the state.
Pennsylvania: The voting machines here do not produce a paper trail so no recount is possible. Futhermore, the allocation of machine and poll workers is a contentious issue (putting few resources into poor areas creates long waits during which time some voters give up and go home). There were large numbers of flyers distributed in Philadelphia saying that Republicans should vote on Tuesday and Democrats on Wednesday to reduce the crowds. This could form the basis of a legal challenge in the unlikely event of a McCain win.
Virginia: The NAACP sued the state over the allocation of resources. State law requires one machine per 750 voters. Assuming it takes 5 minutes to vote, it would take the 750 voters 62.5 hours to vote, so some of them will still be voting on Friday. Problems are also expected with student voters.
<!--ENDFEED-->
(...)

Obama Goes into Election Day Ahead

Here is the final batch of national polls. With 13 polls reporting, Obama has a mean lead of 7.3%. If he indeed wins the popular vote by 7%, he will certainly win the majority of the swing states and be elected President. However, turnout, especially among blacks and younger voters will be crucial. If they fail to show up in the numbers predicted, McCain still has a small chance to win.
- Battleground (Obama +6)
- CBS News (Obama +9)
- Diageo (Obama +5)
- Fox News (Obama +7)
- Gallup (Obama +11)
- IBD (Obama +5)
- Ipsos (Obama +7)
- Marist (Obama +9)
- Rasmussen (Obama +6)
- Research 2000 (Obama +6)
- WSJ/NBC News (Obama +8)
- Washington Post/ABC News (Obama +9)
- Zogby (Obama +7)
Today's Polls

We have 23 presidential polls today. In Colorado (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/colorado.html), Obama still leads 51% to 47% in this must-win state for McCain. Florida (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/florida.html) is up in the air, but Obama has a miniscule lead here. Missouri (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/missouri.html) and North Carolina (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/north-carolina.html) are pure tossups. Ohio (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/ohio.html) seems to be leaning for Obama, with 3 of 4 polls showing him with a slight lead there. Pennsylvania (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/pennsylvania.html) is solid for Obama. McCain made a last-minute effort here, but it failed. Without Pennsylvania, McCain has to hold all the swing states, and some of those, especially Colorado (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/colorado.html) and Virginia (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/virginia.html), look tough for him.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 summary="" border=1><TBODY><TR><TD class=small-state-header>State </TD><TD class=small-state-header>Obama </TD><TD class=small-state-header>McCain </TD><TD class=small-state-header>Start </TD><TD class=small-state-header>End </TD><TD class=small-state-header>Pollster </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Colorado (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/colorado.html) </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>51% </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>47% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Rasmussen </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Florida (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/florida.html) </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>47% </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>45% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 27 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Quinnipiac U. </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Florida (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/florida.html) </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>47% </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>48% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 01 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Datamar </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Florida (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/florida.html) </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>49% </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>50% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Rasmussen </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Florida (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/florida.html) </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>50% </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>47% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 31 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 03 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>SurveyUSA </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Georgia (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/georgia.html) </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>45% </TD><TD class=small-red-right-adjusted>52% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 30 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>SurveyUSA </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Georgia (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/georgia.html) </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>47% </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>48% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Insider Advantage </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Missouri (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/missouri.html) </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>48% </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>48% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 30 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>SurveyUSA </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Missouri (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/missouri.html) </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>49% </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>49% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Rasmussen </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>North Carolina (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/north-carolina.html) </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>48% </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>49% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 30 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>SurveyUSA </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>North Carolina (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/north-carolina.html) </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>49% </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>48% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 31 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 03 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>ARG </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>North Carolina (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/north-carolina.html) </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>49% </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>50% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Rasmussen </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>New Jersey (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/new-jersey.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>57% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>42% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Rasmussen </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Ohio (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/ohio.html) </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>48% </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>46% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 30 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>SurveyUSA </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Ohio (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/ohio.html) </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>49% </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>49% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Rasmussen </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Ohio (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/ohio.html) </TD><TD class=small-blue-right-adjusted>50% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>43% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 27 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Quinnipiac U. </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Ohio (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/ohio.html) </TD><TD class=small-blue-right-adjusted>52% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>46% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 29 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>U. of Cincinnati </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Pennsylvania (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/pennsylvania.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>52% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>42% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 27 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Quinnipiac U. </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Pennsylvania (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/pennsylvania.html) </TD><TD class=small-blue-right-adjusted>52% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>43% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 31 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 03 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>SurveyUSA </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Virginia (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/virginia.html) </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>51% </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>47% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Rasmussen </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Virginia (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/virginia.html) </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>51% </TD><TD class=small-white-right-adjusted>47% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 31 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 03 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>ARG </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>Washington (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/washington.html) </TD><TD class=small-dark-blue-right-adjusted>56% </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>40% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 30 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 02 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>SurveyUSA </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-beige-item>West Virginia (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/west-virginia.html) </TD><TD class=small-gray-right-adjusted>42% </TD><TD class=small-dark-red-right-adjusted>53% </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Oct 31 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>Nov 03 </TD><TD class=small-beige-item>ARG </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[Ellen2]

McCain Wins Missouri

John McCain won (http://www.kansascity.com/449/story/899244.html)Missouri. It was close. His margin of victory was only 3632 votes out of 2.9 million cast. This means the final electoral vote tally is 365 to 173, more than 2 to 1 for Obama. For Missourians, the downside of going for McCain is the state loses its much-heralded bellwether status--it has voted with the winner every time since 1956--except 2008.


http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Nov20.html

[Ellen2]

Election Mythology is Starting Already

The election is only two weeks past and already some ideas that are probably not true are starting to become part of the conventional wisdom. Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post has come up with a list of five myths (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/13/AR2008111303287_pf.html) that don't hold much water:

The Republican Party has suffered a death blow
(The disaster was worse in 1964 and it came back in 1968).
A wave of black voters and young voters was the key to Obama's victory
(There was no significant increase in turnout by either group, although they did vote for Obama).
The Democrats will now usher in a new progressive era
(About a third of the House Democrats are from Republican districts and they will be very cautious).
A Republican could have won the presidency this year
(So many people hate George Bush that probably nothing could have saved the GOP).
McCain made a huge mistake in picking Sarah Palin
(While she cost him independents, without her he would have lost his base, which is worse).

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Nov17.html

[Ellen2]

Did Palin Do Her Job?

Politico has an interesting piece (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1108/15577.html) on whether Sarah Palin accomplished what she was supposed to accomplish. She was picked for basically three reasons: (1) to excite the base and drive up turnout, (2) to attract independent voters, and (3) to pull the disgruntled (PUMA) women away from the Democrats as a punishment for not nominating Hillary Clinton. How did she do? First, as to driving up core Republican turnout, she didn't. Core Republican turnout was 1.3% lower than what the embattled George Bush got in 2004. In fact, the reason Obama won Ohio was not that Democrats turned out in great numbers (Obama actually got fewer votes in Ohio than Kerry) but that Republicans stayed home in droves (300,000 fewer Republican votes than in 2004). Second, Palin didn't help much with independents; they went for Obama by 8% and in numerous polls many of them cited her specifically as their reason for voting for Obama. Probably the biggest disappointment was her lack of support among women; Obama won among women by 13%. The idea that Hillary Clinton's supporters would vote for any woman, even one who opposes everything Clinton stands for, proved completely false. Many people have written that just thinking this ploy would work is by itelf an insult to women's intelligence and quite sexist. Clearly it backfired.
The Pollsters Did A Good Job in 2008

As we discussed here Nov. 5 (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Nov06.html#5), the pollsters were pretty good this cycle. Almost all final state polls were within the margin of error. Even the average of the national polls was spot on.

Analysis of the Bradley Effect

A hot topic the entire year has been the so-called "Bradley effect," which hypothesizes that white people being polled will happily tell a pollster that they will vote for a black person, but in the privacy of the voting booth, don't do it. Finally we have real data to see whether that effect exists and if so, how big it is.
Polling in elections where the outcome is certain in advance do not make good test cases, so let us examine the major swing states: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. For each of these states, we looked at the final October/November poll from the following major pollsters: ARG, Insider Advantage, Mason-Dixon, Opinion Research, Quinnipiac University, Rasmussen, Research 2000, and SurveyUSA. The polling data are given below.


<!--ENDFEED--><TABLE cellSpacing=0 summary="" border=1><TBODY><TR><TD class=state-header>State </TD><TD class=state-header>Obama </TD><TD class=state-header>McCain </TD><TD class=state-header>Sum </TD><TD class=state-header>Start </TD><TD class=state-header>End </TD><TD class=state-header>What? </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Colorado </TD><TD class=beige-item>51.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Nov 2 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Nov 2 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Rasmussen </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Colorado </TD><TD class=beige-item>52.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>43.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 8 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 12 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Quinnipiac U. </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Colorado </TD><TD class=beige-item>52.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>45.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 28 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 30 </TD><TD class=beige-item>ARG </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Colorado </TD><TD class=beige-item>53.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>45.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 23 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 28 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Opinion Research </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Colorado </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>44.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 28 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 29 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Mason-Dixon </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Colorado </TD><TD class=beige-item>53.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>45.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 26 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 26 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Insider Advantage </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Colorado </TD><TD class=beige-item>51.7 </TD><TD class=beige-item>44.8 </TD><TD class=beige-item>96.5 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Average </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Colorado </TD><TD class=beige-item>52.7 </TD><TD class=beige-item>45.7 </TD><TD class=beige-item>98.4 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Average multiplied by 1.020 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Colorado </TD><TD class=beige-item>52.5 </TD><TD class=beige-item>45.9 </TD><TD class=beige-item>98.4 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Election 2008 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=separator colSpan=8> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Florida </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>50.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Nov 2 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Nov 2 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Rasmussen </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Florida </TD><TD class=beige-item>50.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 31 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Nov 3 </TD><TD class=beige-item>SurveyUSA </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Florida </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>45.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 27 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Nov 2 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Quinnipiac U. </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Florida </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>45.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 13 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 15 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Research 2000 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Florida </TD><TD class=beige-item>50.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>46.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 29 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 31 </TD><TD class=beige-item>ARG </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Florida </TD><TD class=beige-item>51.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 23 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 28 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Opinion Research </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Florida </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>45.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 29 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 30 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Mason-Dixon </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Florida </TD><TD class=beige-item>48.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Insider Advantage </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Florida </TD><TD class=beige-item>48.9 </TD><TD class=beige-item>46.5 </TD><TD class=beige-item>95.4 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Average </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Florida </TD><TD class=beige-item>50.8 </TD><TD class=beige-item>48.4 </TD><TD class=beige-item>99.2 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Average multiplied by 1.040 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Florida </TD><TD class=beige-item>50.8 </TD><TD class=beige-item>48.4 </TD><TD class=beige-item>99.2 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Election 2008 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=separator colSpan=8> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Indiana </TD><TD class=beige-item>46.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 28 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 29 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Rasmussen </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Indiana </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 27 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 30 </TD><TD class=beige-item>SurveyUSA </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Indiana </TD><TD class=beige-item>48.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 23 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 25 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Research 2000 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Indiana </TD><TD class=beige-item>48.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>48.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 28 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 31 </TD><TD class=beige-item>ARG </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Indiana </TD><TD class=beige-item>46.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>51.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 3 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 6 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Opinion Research </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Indiana </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>48.4 </TD><TD class=beige-item>95.4 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Average </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Indiana </TD><TD class=beige-item>48.7 </TD><TD class=beige-item>50.2 </TD><TD class=beige-item>98.9 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Average multiplied by 1.037 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Indiana </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.9 </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>98.9 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Election 2008 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=separator colSpan=8> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Missouri </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Nov 2 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Nov 2 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Rasmussen </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Missouri </TD><TD class=beige-item>48.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 20 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 23 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Research 2000 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Missouri </TD><TD class=beige-item>48.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>48.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 28 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 30 </TD><TD class=beige-item>ARG </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Missouri </TD><TD class=beige-item>48.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>50.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 23 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 28 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Opinion Research </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Missouri </TD><TD class=beige-item>46.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 29 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 30 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Mason-Dixon </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Missouri </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>50.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 29 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 29 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Insider Advantage </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Missouri </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.7 </TD><TD class=beige-item>48.5 </TD><TD class=beige-item>96.2 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Average </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Missouri </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.8 </TD><TD class=beige-item>98.8 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Average multiplied by 1.027 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Missouri </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.3 </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.5 </TD><TD class=beige-item>98.8 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Election 2008 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=separator colSpan=8> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Nevada </TD><TD class=beige-item>50.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>46.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 27 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 27 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Rasmussen </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Nevada </TD><TD class=beige-item>50.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>45.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 25 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 28 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Research 2000 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Nevada </TD><TD class=beige-item>52.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>45.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 23 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 28 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Opinion Research </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Nevada </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>43.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 28 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 29 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Mason-Dixon </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Nevada </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 19 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 19 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Insider Advantage </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Nevada </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.2 </TD><TD class=beige-item>45.2 </TD><TD class=beige-item>94.4 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Average </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Nevada </TD><TD class=beige-item>51.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>46.8 </TD><TD class=beige-item>97.8 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Average multiplied by 1.036 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Nevada </TD><TD class=beige-item>55.1 </TD><TD class=beige-item>42.7 </TD><TD class=beige-item>97.8 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Election 2008 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=separator colSpan=8> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>New Mexico </TD><TD class=beige-item>54.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>44.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 28 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 28 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Rasmussen </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>New Mexico </TD><TD class=beige-item>52.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>45.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 29 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 31 </TD><TD class=beige-item>SurveyUSA </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>New Mexico </TD><TD class=beige-item>53.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>44.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>97.5 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Average </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>New Mexico </TD><TD class=beige-item>53.6 </TD><TD class=beige-item>45.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>98.6 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Average multiplied by 1.011 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>New Mexico </TD><TD class=beige-item>56.8 </TD><TD class=beige-item>41.8 </TD><TD class=beige-item>98.6 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Election 2008 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=separator colSpan=8> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>North Carolina </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>50.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Nov 2 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Nov 2 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Rasmussen </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>North Carolina </TD><TD class=beige-item>48.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 30 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Nov 2 </TD><TD class=beige-item>SurveyUSA </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>North Carolina </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>45.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 28 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 30 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Research 2000 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>North Carolina </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>48.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 31 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Nov 3 </TD><TD class=beige-item>ARG </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>North Carolina </TD><TD class=beige-item>52.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>46.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 23 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 28 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Opinion Research </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>North Carolina </TD><TD class=beige-item>46.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 29 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 30 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Mason-Dixon </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>North Carolina </TD><TD class=beige-item>48.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>48.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 29 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 29 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Insider Advantage </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>North Carolina </TD><TD class=beige-item>48.4 </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.9 </TD><TD class=beige-item>96.3 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Average </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>North Carolina </TD><TD class=beige-item>50.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.4 </TD><TD class=beige-item>99.4 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Average multiplied by 1.032 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>North Carolina </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.8 </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.6 </TD><TD class=beige-item>99.4 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Election 2008 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=separator colSpan=8> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Ohio </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Nov 2 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Nov 2 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Rasmussen </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Ohio </TD><TD class=beige-item>48.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>46.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 30 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Nov 2 </TD><TD class=beige-item>SurveyUSA </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Ohio </TD><TD class=beige-item>50.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>43.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 27 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Nov 2 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Quinnipiac U. </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Ohio </TD><TD class=beige-item>48.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>45.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 4 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 7 </TD><TD class=beige-item>ARG </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Ohio </TD><TD class=beige-item>51.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 23 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 28 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Opinion Research </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Ohio </TD><TD class=beige-item>45.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 29 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 30 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Mason-Dixon </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Ohio </TD><TD class=beige-item>52.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>42.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 22 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Insider Advantage </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Ohio </TD><TD class=beige-item>49.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>45.6 </TD><TD class=beige-item>94.6 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Average </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Ohio </TD><TD class=beige-item>51.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.4 </TD><TD class=beige-item>98.4 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Average multiplied by 1.040 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Ohio </TD><TD class=beige-item>51.4 </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>98.4 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Election 2008 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=separator colSpan=8> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Virginia </TD><TD class=beige-item>51.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Nov 2 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Nov 2 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Rasmussen </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Virginia </TD><TD class=beige-item>50.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>46.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 30 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Nov 1 </TD><TD class=beige-item>SurveyUSA </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Virginia </TD><TD class=beige-item>51.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 31 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Nov 3 </TD><TD class=beige-item>ARG </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Virginia </TD><TD class=beige-item>53.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>44.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 23 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 28 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Opinion Research </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Virginia </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>44.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 29 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Oct 30 </TD><TD class=beige-item>Mason-Dixon </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Virginia </TD><TD class=beige-item>50.4 </TD><TD class=beige-item>45.6 </TD><TD class=beige-item>96.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Average </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Virginia </TD><TD class=beige-item>52.0 </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.1 </TD><TD class=beige-item>99.1 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Average multiplied by 1.032 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Virginia </TD><TD class=beige-item>51.8 </TD><TD class=beige-item>47.3 </TD><TD class=beige-item>99.1 </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item> </TD><TD class=beige-item>Election 2008 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

For each state, the (unweighted) average of all the polls listed was computed, as shown on the lines marked "Average." These numbers cannot be compared directly to the final results due to the undecideds. To make this comparison possible, the ratio of the total Obama+McCain vote divided by the Obama+McCain polling numbers was computed for each state. For example, in Colorado, the Obama plus McCain poll averages add up to 96.5% while the actual vote totals add up to 98.4%. Thus the scale factor is 98.4/96.5 = 1.020. The Colorado polls were then multiplied by 1.020 so they added up to 98.4%, just as the actual vote did. These scaled polls are given on the lines labeled "Average multiplied by x." These numbers can be directly compared to the election results since they add up to the same thing.
In Colorado, for example, the scaled poll predicted an Obama vote of 52.7% and a McCain vote of 45.9%. The candidates got 52.5% and 45.9%, respectively. Thus the polls were remarkably close to the actual vote and there is not a hint of Obama polling well but doing badly on election day.
Now look at the eight other swing states. In Florida the pollsters were right on the money. In Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia they were off by a maximum of 1.2% for Obama. In the other two states, Nevada and New Mexico, the polls for Obama were off by 4.1%, which is within the margin of error. In both cases Obama did better than predicted, so clearly there is no Bradley effect here. If nothing else, any future discussions of the "Bradley effect" can be quickly ended with the statement: "It didn't exist in 2008."
Comparison of the Pollsters

There are various ways to compare the pollsters. Professional statisticians look to see if the actual results were within the bracketed range predicted by the pollster. For example, if a pollster predicted Obama 51% and McCain 49% with a 3% margin of error and the final result was McCain 51% and Obama 49%, the pollster would claim to have gotten it right because Obama fell within the predicted range of 48% to 54% and McCain fell into the predicted range of 46% to 52%. Laymen would probably say the pollster got it wrong--because they don't understand what the prediction really is. To keep it simple, let us use the second approach and see which pollsters predicted which states right. Here are the data.


<TABLE cellSpacing=0 summary="" border=1><TBODY><TR><TD class=state-header>Pollster </TD><TD class=state-header>CO </TD><TD class=state-header>FL </TD><TD class=state-header>IN </TD><TD class=state-header>MO </TD><TD class=state-header>NV </TD><TD class=state-header>NM </TD><TD class=state-header>NC </TD><TD class=state-header>OH </TD><TD class=state-header>VA </TD><TD class=state-header>Rt/Tot </TD><TD class=state-header>Pct </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>ARG </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>Tie </TD><TD class=beige-item>Tie </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>5/5 </TD><TD class=beige-item>100% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Insider Advantage </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>Tie </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>Tie </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>4/4 </TD><TD class=beige-item>100% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Quinnipiac U. </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>3/3 </TD><TD class=beige-item>100% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Opinion Research </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>No </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>7/8 </TD><TD class=beige-item>88% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>SurveyUSA </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>Tie </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>No </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>4/5 </TD><TD class=beige-item>80% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Research 2000 </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>No </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>4/5 </TD><TD class=beige-item>80% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Mason-Dixon </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>No </TD><TD class=beige-item>No </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>4/6 </TD><TD class=beige-item>67% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=beige-item>Rasmussen </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>No </TD><TD class=beige-item>No </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>No </TD><TD class=beige-item>- </TD><TD class=beige-item>Yes </TD><TD class=beige-item>4/7 </TD><TD class=beige-item>57% </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Unhappy About the Election and Want to Leave the Country?

If you are unhappy about the election results and want to leave the country and are interesting in getting a Masters Degree in Computer Systems, check out this English-language program in Parallel and Distributed Systems (http://pdcs.vu.nl/) in Amsterdam at the Vrije Universiteit, one of the top private universities in Europe. In fact, even if you are happy about the results, it might be of interest.


http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Nov06.html#5

<!-- END OF NEWS -->