Janus Henderson Investors: Chinese nominal GDP confusion: slowdown confirmed

Janus Henderson Investors: Chinese nominal GDP confusion: slowdown confirmed
20.01.2020 15:32:58

The numbers carried by Datastream changed over the weekend and now show a slowdown rather than acceleration in Q4. The explanation is that there have been upward revisions to the level of nominal GDP in previous quarters, which weren’t available on Friday – we were comparing the new Q4 number with old-basis data for earlier quarters.

The expectation here has been that two-quarter nominal GDP expansion would fall in H1 2020 in lagged reflection of declines in six-month growth rates of money and credit since Q2 2019. The new numbers suggest that that this slowdown has already started – see chart (revised from Friday’s post).

Nominal GDP and Money
Nominal GDP and Money
Nominal GDP and Money

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