Janus Henderson Investors: UK employment rise no obstacle to rate cut

Janus Henderson Investors: UK employment rise no obstacle to rate cut
23.01.2020 08:34:28

This increase, however, merely reverses a decline earlier in 2019 – the November three-month level was unchanged from February. The stock of vacancies recovered slightly in the three months to December, which appears to reflect a sharp jump in December alone, but the signal for employment prospects remains negative – see first chart.

UK-employment-rise-no-obstacle-to-rate-cut_chart01
UK-employment-rise-no-obstacle-to-rate-cut_chart01
UK-employment-rise-no-obstacle-to-rate-cut_chart01

MPC members may be more impressed by confirmation that private sector earnings growth has peaked – second chart.

UK-employment-rise-no-obstacle-to-rate-cut_chart02
UK-employment-rise-no-obstacle-to-rate-cut_chart02
UK-employment-rise-no-obstacle-to-rate-cut_chart02

The labour force survey measure of unemployment has moved sideways since early 2019 but the “experimental” alternative claimant count, which attempts to track the number of jobless benefit recipients by adjusting for the roll-out of universal credit, continued to rise into November – third chart.

UK-employment-rise-no-obstacle-to-rate-cut_chart03
UK-employment-rise-no-obstacle-to-rate-cut_chart03
UK-employment-rise-no-obstacle-to-rate-cut_chart03

Today’s public finances release for December provides further evidence of significant labour market cooling, with pay-as-you-earn tax receipts, smoothed over six months, showing the slowest year-on-year growth since 2013 – fourth chart.

UK-employment-rise-no-obstacle-to-rate-cut_chart04
UK-employment-rise-no-obstacle-to-rate-cut_chart04
UK-employment-rise-no-obstacle-to-rate-cut_chart04

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