^ Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG - from NuWays AG

15.09.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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Classification of NuWays AG to MHP Hotel AG

Company Name: MHP Hotel AG ISIN: DE000A3E5C24

Reason for the research: Update Recommendation: Buy Target price: EUR 3.50 Target price on sight of: 12 months Last rating change: Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

H1 optics are worse than operations; chg.

Following Friday's guidance cut, MHP released its H1 report yesterday, confirming the picture. In detail:

H1 sales came in at EUR 99.3m (eNuW: EUR 98.3m), up 25% yoy. Growth was significantly carried by the new hotels (Conrad and Hyatt Vienna), which added EUR 17m, implying organic growth of 3.8%. Occupancy came in at 72.0%, ADR at EUR 219 and RevPAR at EUR 158. Mind you, the reported rate data is adjusted for Conrad only. The Andaz Vienna was rebranded to Hyatt Regency over Easter, which both disrupted Q2 trading and structurally lowers portfolio ADR, so like-for-like rate erosion is materially smaller than the reported 1% decline suggests.

Margin looks worse than it is. H1 EBITDA of EUR 0.2m was only slightly behind eNuW of EUR 0.6m. The H1'25 EUR 2.3m figure is actually not a good comparable, as it was inflated by EUR 4.0m Conrad FF&E related one-offs. Hence, there is no cost problem as operating EBITDA improved by EUR 1.9m yoy.

Slower Conrad ramp-up and Middle East cause guidance cut. While the sales guidance was only slightly cut to EUR 220-225m (old: c. EUR 225m), EBITDA was adjusted more significantly from c. EUR 10m to c. EUR 8m. The main reason for this is seen to be the Conrad, where occupancy ramp-up is running below budget as flows through the brand systems have not materialized yet. On top of this comes Middle East. Although accounting for only 2.5% of sales (FY25 base), these guests are the usual suite bookers and carry well above-average F&B spend, causing a disproportionate earnings hit. Energy adds to the pressure, not only on pure price but also higher consumption during the summer heat. The implied H2 run-rate of EUR 7.8m however seems reasonable, in our view, as H2 is seasonally the far stronger half, with events like Oktoberfest and EXPO REAL carrying Q3 and December now among the portfolio's strongest months on Christmas market demand.

Overall, the case is intact, as the cut is largely a timing issue (Conrad), not structural. Besides this, the company remains the leading white-label operator in the DACH premium segment, with privileged access to high-barrier assets that come with limited capital commitment of its own. This allows the platform to add about 1,000 rooms by FY29e without touching the balance sheet. With premium demand structurally unbroken and the Conrad ramp-up a question of when rather than if, the earnings power of the enlarged portfolio should come through from FY27e onwards. At current levels, the market is not at all pricing this.

Changes in estimates reflect the FY26 guidance adjustment as well as a more conservate approach on return to normal from Middle East travellers.

We thus reiterate BUY with a new PT of EUR 3.50 (old: EUR 3.70) based on DCF.

You can download the research here: https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=81efa950861b12c8efa47cc8c135f344 For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++

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2399172 15.09.2026 CET/CEST

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Quelle: dpa-Afx