^ Original-Research: Verbio SE - from NuWays AG

21.10.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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Classification of NuWays AG to Verbio SE

Company Name: Verbio SE ISIN: DE000A0JL9W6

Reason for the research: Update Recommendation: BUY Target price: EUR 41 Target price on sight of: 12 months Last rating change: Analyst: Jorge Gonzalez

Q1 preview: Strong start supports FY26/27 outlook

VERBIO is set for a strong start to FY26/27, with Q1'26/27 EBITDA expected to quadruple yoy to EUR 61.5m (eNuW), supported by stronger European biodiesel and ethanol spreads, higher utilisation as Nevada continues to ramp up, and significantly higher German GHG quota prices. Nevertheless, EBITDA is seen c. 11% below Q4'25/26, adjusted for the EUR 19m reversal of GHG quota inventory impairments. This mainly reflects normalising European ethanol spreads (eNuW: c. EUR 230/t vs c. EUR 380/t in Q4). While GHG quota market prices have continued to rise qoq, we expect a higher share of deliveries under fixed-price bilateral contracts rather than spot sales, keeping realised prices broadly stable qoq.

Biodiesel EBITDA is expected to increase 60% yoy to EUR 36.1m, with broadly equal contributions to growth from higher market spreads (+70% yoy to EUR 184/t, eNuW) and higher GHG quota prices (eNuW: EUR 430/t CO, up c. EUR 280/t yoy). Biodiesel spreads have recovered sharply after approaching break-even in April-June, when vegetable oil prices initially reacted more strongly than biodiesel prices to expectations of higher renewable fuel demand following regulatory changes in Europe and the US (Germany's RED III implementation and higher US renewable fuel blending obligations for 2026-27 under the RFS). Market spreads are expected to improve further sequentially in Q2 to above EUR 250/t (eNuW), although the timing of feedstock purchases and biodiesel sales may affect realised margins.

Bioethanol/Biomethane EBITDA is seen improving by c. EUR 35m yoy to EUR 25.8m, primarily driven by higher GHG quota prices (c. EUR 30m contribution to yoy growth, eNuW), alongside slightly stronger market spreads and increasing biomethane volumes in Nevada. Against Q4, EBITDA is expected to decline c. 28%, excluding the inventory impairment reversal, mainly reflecting the aforementioned normalisation of European ethanol spreads. Other activities and consolidation are expected to contribute EUR -0.4m to group EBITDA.

Net income is expected to recover to EUR 25.0m (eNuW, vs EUR -4m in Q1'25/26), assuming an effective tax rate of c. 43%, elevated by US losses for which no tax benefit is recognised. Improving US profitability should gradually lower the group's effective tax rate over the course of FY26/27.

The anticipated strong start to the year underpins our FY26/27 estimates, with upside potential from higher-than-assumed GHG quota prices or a prolonged period of elevated biodiesel spreads. Beyond the current year, the recent CMD reinforced our investment case, highlighting illustrative mid-cycle EBITDA of c. EUR 300m, progress in renewable chemicals and additional upside from US tax incentives. Lower capex and the planned monetisation of accumulated GHG quotas (eNuW: EUR 220m in cash proceeds) should further support cash generation. We reiterate BUY and our EUR 41 price target, based on the average FY27/28-FY28/29 FCF yield. -Q1 estimates table on next page-

You can download the research here: https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=5e5c3484b3f3e7b001918d749102ff50 For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++

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2419212 21.10.2026 CET/CEST

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Quelle: dpa-Afx