^ Original-Research: tonies SE - from NuWays AG

14.11.2025 / 10:25 CET/CEST Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

Company Name: tonies SE ISIN: LU2333563281

Reason for the research: Update Recommendation: BUY from: 14.11.2025 Target price: EUR 11.00 Target price on sight of: 12 months Last rating change: Analyst: Henry Wendisch

Strong TB2 traction and order timing drive strong Q3 results

Yesterday, tonies released a very strong Q3 trading statement, beating our regional and categorytopline estimates. In detail:

Group sales grew by 52% yoy to EUR 145m (eNuW: EUR 124m). Following the atypical, modest growthvisible in Q2 (+16% yoy vs. 33% in FY24 and 24% in Q1 '25), the company has shown a strongmomentum recovery. Although we expected this recovery (eNuW: 30% yoy growth in Q3), the extent came as a positive surprise.

TB2 launch carried strong phase-in effects. In September, tonies launched the first iteration of itscore product, called the Toniebox 2 (TB2). Before that, Q2 saw a 12% yoy decline in sales fromTonieboxes, as retailers stopped ordering the TB1 and waited until Q3 to fill inventories withthe new TB2. At that time, the decline surprised the market, as the TB2 launch was communicatedonly after Q2 results. This led to strong phase-in effects and Toniebox sales increased by astaggering 59% yoy to EUR 40m (eNuW: EUR 35m). Moreover, management also highlighted that asubstantial part of the strong performance stems from upgrades, where existing TB1 ownerspurchased the new TB2. Mind you, the launch of TB2 (for end customers) started on Sept. 15, 2025in DACH, whereas US and ROW roll-out began on 5th October and thus in Q4.

Revenue growth in DACH climbed back to old levels, with sales growing by 45% yoy to EUR 61m (eNuW: EUR 54m), mostly due to the phase-in effects mentioned above. North America also experienced a strong sales growth of 47% yoy to EUR 54m (eNuW: EUR 45m), followed by RoW, which delivered a remarkable 83% yoy growth to EUR 30m (eNuW: EUR 28m).

Figurines grew driven by TB2 and new launches. Given that Tonies figurines are usually bought inparallel to a Toniebox purchase, Tonies figurines sales surged 48% yoy to EUR 99m (eNuW: EUR 85m),also carried by robust uptake of recent releases, including My First Tonies,Tonieplay, and the US best-seller Ms. Rachel Tonie. Mind you, Tonies figurines make up ~70% of sales and carrystructurally higher margins than the boxes.

tonies set to reach guidance if a strong Q4 follows. Management expects another record quarterin Q4, which typically makes up ~50% of FY revenues. Based on our Q4 estimate of EUR 276m (+16%yoy), we expect FY Ž25 sales of EUR 598m, slightly below the "more than EUR 600m sales" guidance target. Firstly, we factor in some EUR/USD FX-headwinds (guidance is in constant currency) andsecondly expect some demand to have pre-shifted into Q3, which would usually materialize in Q4during the holiday season. Nevertheless, we regard the TB2 as a very potent product and wouldnot rule out an estimate beat on the upcoming Christmas season.

Overall, we maintain our strong conviction on the investment case, supported by the high revenue potential stemming from the new product family, and the proven profitability of toniesŽ businessmodel, which should increase as the company scales internationally. Therefore, we reiterate our BUYrating, and keep our PT unchanged at EUR 11.00, based on DCF

You can download the research here: https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=0acb484c506296104221030080c12ff3 For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++

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2230116 14.11.2025 CET/CEST

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Quelle: dpa-Afx