^ Original-Research: tonies SE - from NuWays AG

13.11.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

Company Name: tonies SE ISIN: LU2333563281

Reason for the research: Update Recommendation: BUY Target price: EUR 18.50 Target price on sight of: 12 months Last rating change: Analyst: Christian Sandherr

Q3 review: Early tentpoles lift Q3, holiday setup intact

tonies reported Q3 sales of EUR 180m, +28% yoy (cc: +27%), slightly above market estimates (eCons: EUR 175m). 9M sales reached EUR 423m (+33% yoy; cc: +35%), i.e. ~56% of the FY guidance of >EUR 760m. Part of the Q3 strength is timing: Pokémon, Bluey, the Hasbro games and the Toniebox Lite (so far Walmart only) all hit the shelves in Q3 in most markets, earlier than last year's launch calendar, which moved retailer sell-in from Q4 into Q3.

Figurines drive the quarter, Lite widens the funnel. Tonies sales rose 35% yoy to EUR 131m (eCons: EUR 125m), while Tonieboxes grew 13% yoy to EUR 44m (eNuW: EUR 43m) against a tough TB2 launch base. Over 9M, box sales are up 37%, which keeps expanding the installed base for future figurine sales. Bluey stands out: in North America it ranked among the top 20 figurines by listening time within two months. Tonieplay extends the age range: more than 65% of Hasbro game players are aged 5+, and they listen more per week than the average user. TB Lite attracts new families rather than cannibalising: ~60% of units were activated in new households, at a playtime similar to TB2. Its national US roll-out across all retailers is only starting now and is thus mainly a Q4 driver.

International share climbs to 63%. NA grew 42% yoy to EUR 73m (cc: +40%; 9M: +50% cc; eCons: EUR 70m), RoW 37% to EUR 39m (eCons: EUR 38m) and DACH 11% to EUR 68m (eCons: EUR 67m). The latter should be regarded as strong sign taking into account the already high market penetration. Markets outside DACH now generate 63% of 9M sales (+4.4pp yoy). In the UK, heavier brand investment pays off: a London-wide campaign generated 110m+ impressions, and six weeks of TikTok Lives delivered a 4.5x revenue uplift vs. the prior six weeks. LATAM is next: tonies has appointed a Head of LATAM (former MD LATAM at Mattel), a clear sign that the 2027 market entry is moving into execution. We see high potential, and the bilingual Spanish Tonies range built for US Hispanic families already offers a content base for the launch.

Mix shifts back towards figurines. Tonies made up 73% of Q3 sales (Q3 25: 69%), helped by the content launches, which should support gross margin in H2. Further cost pressure persists but is managed well. Especially memory chips remain the single largest burden, yet supply is secured well into 2027 and management sees no incremental risk. US tariff refunds sit in cash but are fully offset by provisions, i.e. no P&L effect.

Single-digit Q4 growth sufficient to hit guidance. To reach >EUR 760m, Q4 needs roughly EUR 337m, only +8% yoy, NA requires +15% cc for its >30% target. The comp is tougher, as Q4 25 still included TB2 catch-up box sales, and the earlier launches have shifted some volume into Q3. Holiday indicators look supportive, however: in DACH, the number of Christmas Tonies sold doubled yoy for the second year running and both Advent calendar figurines are sold out, while 3,000+ additional endcaps at Target (Bluey) and Walmart (Lite) back the US season. The 9-11% adj. EBITDA margin guidance was confirmed, with Q4 again carrying the bulk of annual profit.

BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 18.50 (DCF).

You can download the research here: https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=c7f9878ae5c453c0397f1766efd9d92b For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++

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2434222 13.11.2026 CET/CEST

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Quelle: dpa-Afx